WASHINGTON: The IMF warned on Friday that China, the world’s second-largest economy, could face a “disorderly correction” followed by slower growth if its reform programme slows.
Presenting its annual assessment of China, the IMF expressed satisfaction with its transition to a more market-oriented economy. But it also warned Beijing to stay the course, despite recent warning signs.
“The faster the progress, the sooner the benefits will materialise,” said Markus Rodlauer, head of the IMF mission to China and one of the authors of the review.
The report forecasts 6.8 per cent growth for this year, relatively low by recent Chinese standards but this was expected as Beijing transitions to a more sustainable model.
It also said the yuan is no longer undervalued, despite Beijing ordering this week’s steep fall against the dollar, noting it was still well up over the year.
The IMF was also sanguine about the recent turmoil on Chinese stock markets, which it said does not threaten the wider economy.
But it urged Beijing to quickly unwind its massive state intervention to support falling share prices, and warned that the true risk would come from slowing reform.
“Insufficient progress in containing vulnerabilities and advancing structural reforms continues to pose the biggest risk to the outlook,” Rodlauer warned.
“If there were going ahead insufficient progress that would be the biggest risk that, if realise, could result over the medium term in a disorderly correction and a protracted period of slower growth.”
Markets and some world governments have been alarmed by this week’s decision by China to devalue the yuan, but the IMF said it should be seen as a step toward a more market-oriented exchange rate approach.